2010 Oscar Predictions

I know it's way too early to predict this, but there's some sort of pride in being the first one out of the gate with predictions, especially if I manage to do halfway decent (pretty much impossible). Without further ado, here are the films that I foresee getting nominated next season:

BEST PICTURE

The American

Black Swan

It’s Kind of a Funny Story

Blue Valentine

Brighton Rock

The Conspirator

Never Let Me Go

Somewhere

Tree of Life

True Grit

BEST DIRECTOR

Terrence Mallick, Tree of Life

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Robert Redford, The Conspirator

Rowan Joffe, Brighton Rock

BEST ACTOR

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

James McAvoy, The Conspirator

Sam Riley, Brighton Rock

Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole

Robert Duvall, Get Low

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right

Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Zach Galifianakis, It’s Kind of a Funny Story

Matt Damon, True Grit

Stephen Dorff, Somewhere

Sean Penn, Tree of Life

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Rebecca Hall, The Town

Hailee Steinfield, True Grit

Cecile De France, Hereafter

Carey Mulligan, Brighton Rock

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Black Swan

Toy Story 3

The Conspirator

Blue Valentine

Biutiful

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Brighton Rock

Rabbit Hole

It’s Kind of a Funny Story

True Grit

The American

Bruno *1/2/****

Bruno is a sometimes funny, sometimes offensive, but always bizarre and shocking piece of work from the mind of Sacha Baron Cohen. The film, like Borat, is shot like a documentary in which a blatantly homosexual Austrian decides to travel to Los Angeles to become famous. The film follows Bruno in his journey to superstardom while at the same time supposedly exposing the homophobia of America. As a gay person myself, I had some problems to Cohen’s approach, and I’m not one that gets offended easily.

I’ll start off by mentioning the good. The film itself is pretty funny. The bizarre situations are pretty funny, but Cohen pushes them to the extreme mostly overdoing them, nullifying what came before. His gags start off amusing but fall short when they persist. Most of the parts I found funniest were amusing one-liners such as Bruno yelling to a runway model: “Push your shoulders back! This is a runway show not a slave auction” or when talking to a priest that is going to convert Bruno and make him straight, Bruno mentions that his lips are perfect blow job lips. The guy responds by saying his lips are made to spread the word of God. “They’re made for something else but whatever” is Bruno’s response. These parts are funny because they aren’t overdone.

Most of Bruno, however, turns sour after the joke runs too long. Yes, it is initially funny and shocking to see how far some parents will go to get their kids exposure, but after Bruno’s interviews with parents seems to go on for five minutes my interest has been lost. When Bruno and Lutz and handcuffed together (to put it nicely), they’re journey seems to go on forever. At that point I’m just grossed out and not interested. The only joke that doesn’t grow old is Bruno’s baby O.J.

The situations that Bruno gets himself in are also the main problem with the film. They are very contrived. He approaches people that are extremely homophobic not even bothering to acknowledge that there are people in America that have accepted homosexuals. I understand the point is to expose the homophobia so he travels to areas where homophobia does exist, but the film doesn’t even show that some progress has been made. It makes America to overall be full of ignorant, white trash, hillbillies. Of course the perception of gay people isn’t going to be good when you put a flamboyant flamer in places like Alabama and Arkansas. I pride myself in being straight acting. This is even brought up in the movie. When Bruno tries to become straight he goes to a karate instructor to learn how to defend himself from homosexuals. Bruno asks how to spot said homosexuals, and the instructor says it is hard because some appear like normal people-kind of like terrorists blending into society. This part, while somewhat offensive, is hysterical.

It’s true too. I consider myself the type of gay person that just blends into the crowd, and I think this is what America needs. We don’t need flamboyant people flaunting around their gay pride. This is exactly what turns “straight America” away from legalizing same sex marriage. I consider myself normal; it doesn’t matter that I’m a guy that likes guys. I act like everyone else. My friends and family don’t consider it a big deal either because I don’t go out of my way to make it apparent to everyone that I’m gay. My parents said that they would tell people I’m gay if asked. When mentioning me in conversation, though, it would be like, “This is our son, he’s blank, blank, blank, oh and he happens to be gay.” This is exactly how it should be to me, and I love my parents for taking this stance. But no, there are people in the world that want to go around yelling to the heavens that they are gay.

So this is where the film screws up. It creates a character that is one of the biggest flamers I have ever witnessed and sticks him in situations with extremely homophobic people. I think the whole of America would come around if gay people didn’t have to flaunt it. Yes, it’s good to be proud of your sexuality, but one can do this without shoving his dick in someone’s face saying “Hey I’m a homosexual. Are you interested in sucking my dick today?”

OSCAR UPDATE

In some rather shocking news, Academy president Sid Ganis announced that this year there will be 10 Best Picture nominees at this year's Academy Awards instead of the usual five. In the press release he stated that this decision was an attempt for the Oscars to go back to its roots when ten nominees was not out of the norm. I, on the other hand, see it as the Academy responding to recent snubs of higher profile films like The Dark Knight and Wall-E and smaller endeavors like A History of Violence and Half Nelson. While the announcement is exciting, I feel like this decision takes away from the prestige of the five films competing for best picture, diluting the contenders. Yes, I think some films that deserve to be nominated will be nominated, but many films that don't deserve the recognition will also be competing for the top prize.

I decided to go ahead and predict what I think would be nominated. Here are my nominees with five alternates:

1. Invictus
2. Nine
3. Shutter Island
4. Amelia
5. Bright Star
6. Up
7. Precious
8. An Education
9. The Hurt Locker
10. Funny People

11. Avatar
12. The Road
13. A Serious Man
14. The Lovely Bones
15. 500 Days of Summer

I'm gonna take my blind stab in the dark at guessing next year's Oscar nominees. I've carefully researched via IMDB and Kris Tapley's amazing compilation of 2009 films at incontention.com. Anyways here is what I see getting nominated followed by my predicted winners. From last night's ceremony I correctly predicted Sean Penn and Heath Ledger wins in my day after the Oscars predictions.

Day After the Oscars Predictions

BEST PICTURE
1. Shutter Island
2. Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
3. Nine
4. The Lovely Bones
5. Away We Go

6. Broken Embraces
7. Taking Woostock
8. Public Enemies
9. A Serious Man
10. Amelia

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
2. Clint Eastwood, Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
3. Rob Marshall, Nine
4. Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
5. Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces

6. Same Mendes, Away We Go
7. Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
8. Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
9. John Hillcoat, The Road
10. Michael Mann, Public Enemies

BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
3. Morgan Freeman, Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
4. Viggo Mortensen, The Road
5. Algenis Perez Soto, Sugar

6. Matt Damon, The Informant
7. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Boat that Rocked
8. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
9. Mark Wahlberg, The Lovely Bones
10. Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

BEST ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education
3. Ellen Burstyn, Lovely, Still
4. Helen Mirren, The Tempest
5. Nicole Kidman, Nine

6. Ellen Page, Whip It
7. Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
8. Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
9. Gabourey Sidibe, Push: Based on a Novel by Sapphire
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
2. Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
3. Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island
4. Richard Kind, A Serious Man
5. Emile Hirsch, Taking Woodstock

6. Christian Bale, Public Enemies
7. Kodi Scott-McPhee, The Road
8. Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
9. Kevin Space, Men Who Stare at Goats
10. Sean Penn, The Tree of Life

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Marion Cotillard, Nine
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
3. Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
4. Mo’nique, Push: Based on a Novel by Sapphire
5. Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

6. Kathy Bates, Cheri
7. Penelope Cruz, Nine
8. Jennifer Connely, Creation
9. Sophia Loren, Nine
10. Charlize Theron, The Road

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Up
2. Broken Embraces
3. Away We Go
4. Funny People
5. A Serious Man

6. The Boat that Rocked
7. Whatever Works
8. 500 Days of Summer
9. The Limits of Control
10. Bitutiful

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Nine
2. Shutter Island
3. The Lovely Bones
4. An Education
5. Public Enemies

6. The Informant
7. Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
8. Taking Woodstock
9. The Road
10. Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Up
2. Mary & Max
3.Coraline

4. Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
5. The Princess and the Frog
6. 9

WINNERS:
PICTURE: Nine
DIRECTOR: Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces
ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
ACTRESS: Ellen Burstyn, Lovely, Still
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Broken Embraces
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Nine

Most Anticipated Films of 2009

This morning I sort of haphazardly threw together my 10 most anticipated films of 2009. It's an interesting list in my opinion, but then again I made it. Without further ado:


10. All Good Things
I love the pairing of Ryan Gosling and Kirsten Dunst in this mystery love drama. After The Notebook, Half Nelson, and Lars and the Real Girl I will watch Gosling in anything. I also thought Dunst was the shining light of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, but she sadly never gained the recognition she deserved.

9. The Lovely Bones
I am briefly familiar with this popular novel. I really need to pick it up and read it. This should be an emotional tearjerker. I would like to see how Peter Jackson handles this because this is not a film I had imagined him doing. The cast looks great led by Mark Wahlberg, Rachel Weisz, and Saoirse Ronan. Still, this has to live up to the hype of the novel and please its fanbase.

8. The Box
This was much higher last year on my most anticipated films of 2008, but it sadly got pushed back to 2009. It has done a lot of shifting between the September and November release months, and it has (hopefully) settled on November. Richard Kelly created the masterpiece Donnie Darko. Southland Tales was hugely underwhelming, but I think this will be a step in the right direction.

7. Sherlock Holmes
This should be one of the movie events of the year. Robert Downey, Jr. is coming off a banner year, and this film should help increase his rising star power. I don’t know if this remake will turn out to be one of the best films of the year, but it could turn out to be one of the most fun ones. Extra kudos to casting Rachel McAdams—my favorite working actress today.

6. Shutter Island
This could be the big Oscar movie of 2009. Martin Scorsese directs Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Michelle Williams, Emily Mortimer, and Ben Kingsley in this drama/thriller. Huge expectations from critics could lead to huge disappointment, but I don’t think so.

5. Watchmen
I knew practically nothing of this graphic novel before the announcement of the film. Still, the film looks intriguing and promises to be one of the movie events, if not THE movie event, of the year. The copyright debate has gotten me even more intrigued. This should be a film to watch out for, a force to be reckoned with.

4. 500 Days of Summer
I feel kind of stupid putting this on my most anticipated list, but this trailer is amazing. It looks just like a film that Fox Searchlight would release. The trailer is undeniably charming. I am a sucker for a good love story, or a story about love, as the trailer suggests. This also appears to have mainstream appeal, and I would not be surprised if it brings in a hefty amount at the box-office.

3. Nine
Felinni’s 8 ½ is a great film, and this adaptation sounds like a winner. The cast is amazing led by Daniel Day-Lewis under the direction of Rob Marshall. This film could totally end up bombing because I’m sure this could possibly receive early front-runner status at next year’s Oscars, but for now I am intrigued.

2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
I love Harry Potter with a passion, and anytime a film will be released it will appear close to the top of my most anticipated list. Enough said.

1. The Time Traveler’s Wife
I fell in love with this beautiful novel when I read it last summer and have been eagerly anticipating the movie ever since. It should be a beautiful love story if done right. Rachel McAdams as the lead is great casting, but this was supposed to be released by New Line before their demise. I won’t hold that against it until I see it.

Nominations!

And here they are:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

I'm surprised at The Reader's mention. It's a good movie, but not one of the best. I think the only film from my personal top 5 that matches with this category is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

A nice crop of nominees. I would loved to have seen DiCaprio nominated but oh well.

Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

I thought Jolie would be snubbed, but at least Hawkins missed out. I found nothing special in Happy-Go-Lucky. I really hate the fact that Winslet got in for The Reader and not Revolutionary Road. My last major Oscar contender to see is The Wrestler (on Friday), and Winslet and DiCaprio give the two best performances out of any actors this year. It's a shame they don't get the attention they deserve.

Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Loved the mention of Michael Shannon! This is Ledger's hands down though.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Glad that The Reader wasn't included since it doesn't belong here. It would have been nice to see DeWitt get in.

Director
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Where the fu#@ is The Dark Knight?!

Original Screenplay
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Andrew Stanton - WALL•E

My personal favorite category. I loved the mention of Frozen River! It's one of the year's best.

Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth + Robin Swicord - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
David Hare - The Reader
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

Nothing too special. Slumdog pretty much has this.

Oscar Predictions

Here are my Oscar predictions. Tomorrow is the big day! I also included a dark horse that could pop out of nowhere to be nominated in each of the top 8 categories.

PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Dark Horse: The Wrestler

DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus van Sant, Milk
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Dark Horse: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky

ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Dark Horse: Josh Brolin, W

ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams, Wendy & Lucy

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dark Horse: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Dark Horse: Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Happy-Go-Lucky
Dark Horse: The Visitor

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Dark Horse: Let the Right One In

ANIMATED FEATURE
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Kung Fu Panda

ART DIRECTION
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
Australia

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Australia

COSTUME DESIGN
The Duchess
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Fall
Revolutionary Road
Changeling

FILM EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler

MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
The Wrestler

SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road

SONG
The Wrestler
Slumdog Millionaire
High School Musical 3
Trouble the Water
Wall-E

SOUND EDITING
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

SOUND MIXING
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man