Predictions Update

I've been pretty inactive for awhile, and I'm sorry to say that. I don't think there is anyone really eagerly checking this blog everyday to see if I posted anything new though. Anyways, the Toronto Film Festival starts tomorrow, and I wanted to update my predictions before the festival starts. With awards season getting ready to start, I expect to update the blog more frequently. Expect another update after Toronto. Here's my updated predictions with some commentary:

Predictions Update (September 3, 2008-Before Toronto)

BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Road”
3. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”

6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “Slumdog Millionaire"
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Dark Knight”

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" looks like the strong bet right now, and after the extraordinary teaser, I'm going to stick with that as my pick. Still, if "The Road" catches on I can see that winning. "I think Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road" are character pieces so I don't think they will win. I also want to predict "Milk" but I just don't know much about it yet. The trailer is supposed to hit today, so we'll see. I also could see "The Dark Knight" getting nominated, but I want to wait before I move it into my top 5.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”

I really don't know what director is going to wind this category or even who is going to be nominated. Mendes won for "American Beatuy," so I'm not going ot say him. If I had to predict a winner I would say Fincher, even though I don't feel safe saying that right now. I feel more safe in predicting Nolan for "The Dark Knight." The film is just too big to ignore, even if it's not going to be the best film of the year.

BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Sean Penn, “Milk”
4. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”

6. Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”/ “Guerilla”
10. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”

I am also fairly confident about my predicted 5 in this category. I think Hoffman may go supporting for "Doubt" but I'm not sure. With "Doubt" and "Synecdoche, New York," he should have a great year. I just expect their to be some category confusion, and he will probably wind up missing out this year. Del Toro is said to be strong in "Che" but the film has received less than enthusiastic reviews. Distributing the film has also become a hassle. Still, I like my top 5, and I could see any of them winning. I think Penn is the least likely to win because he won for "Mystic River." If I had to pick a frontrunner I would say it's Langella for "Frost/Nixon," but I kind of see a dark horse coming out from the shadows in Viggo Mortensen in "The Road."

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Kristen Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”

6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
7. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
8. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
9. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
10. Michelle Williams, “Wendy and Lucy”

The Best Actress category is extremely packed this year. I think any 10 of these ladies has a possibility of being nominated. After seeing "Happy-Go-Lucky," I can understand the buzz surrounding her, but I really don't think it's going to last until nominations, and I hope it doesn't. If anyone's buzz should carry until nomination time I would it would be Melissa Leo's for her amazing portrayl of Ray in "Frozen River." The film is extremely powerful, and if I had it my way it would probably show up in other categories (so far). I removed Rachel McAdams from my top 5, only because there is some discrepancy about when the film is going to be released. Last time I heard, it was aiming for a Thanksgiving release. If the film is released then, I think her performance will be amazing. Early buzz on her is strong, and the book the film is based upon is one of the most interesting books I have read in awhile. Hathaway and Thomas are riding strong buzz right now, and I think both of them will secure a nomination. Streep will probably be nominated yet again also, and Angelina Jolie, who was snubbed last year, for "A Mighty Heart," may pop up for "The Changeling" though I am hearing mixed things. Still I have heard extraordinary things about Kate Winslett in "Revolutionary Road," and she is long overdue for the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
3. Live Schreiber, “Defiance”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”

6. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
9. Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
10. Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”

This category is weak. Extremely weak. I had enough trouble finding 10 possible contenders. Nevertheless, the one to beat in this category is Heath Ledger. His performance in "The Dark Knight" was too astounding to be ignored. If I had to pick a nominee that poses any serious threat to him I was say it's Kodi Smit-McPhee for "The Road."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
2. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing but the Truth”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Charlize Theron, “The Road”

6. Viola Davis, “Doubt”
7. Rachel Weisz, “The Brother’s Bloom”
8. Rinko Kikuchi, “The Brothers Bloom”
9. Rachel McAdams, “The Lucky Ones”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”

Supporting Actress is a fairly weak category this year. I loved Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I do not think she will win this category. Charlize Theron's role in "The Road" is supposedly bigger than it was in the novel, and if it is you can probably expect her to show up when the nominees are announced. "The Brother's Bloom" was pushed back to a limited release in December with a wide release following in January. I don't know if this gives the film enough time to build its campaign, so I removed Weisz from my top 5. Still, I think either she or Rinko Kikuchi have a good chance of being nominated if the film catches on. I really want to predict Rachel McAdams for "The Lucky Ones" (one of my favorite working actresses, so there may be a little bias there). I get really good vibes from the trailer, but I will wait until after the film premieres at Toronto to put her in my top 5. Honestly, I don't know who the one to beat is in this category. I would say it's one of my predicted 5 minus Cruz.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Synecdoche, New York”
2. “Happy-Go-Lucky”
3. “Wall-E”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”

6. “The Changeling”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “Seven Pounds”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Wrestler"

Many people are predicting "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I don't think the film can sustain it's buzz until the end of awards season. I have seen "Happy-Go-Lucky," and while it was a good film, I did not find it to be anything special. Still, I think it will probably end up nominated in this category. I have read "The Wrestler," and I really enjoyed it. I'm a little hesitant to predict it because it doesn't have domestic distribution yet. The one to beat in this category, in my opinion, is "Milk."


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Slumdog Millionaire”
5. “Frost/Nixon”

6. “Body of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Doubt”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”

"Slumdog Millionaire," Danny Boyle's new film has come out of nowhere and is running high on a wave of buzz from Telluride. If the buzz continues through Toronto, it could become this year's "Juno". I don't think it will be as successful as "Juno," but it should at least garner a nomination in this category. Still, I think the film to beat in this category is "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," despite the negative buzz surrounding the 20 minutes that were previewed at Telluride.