I haven't been keeping up with this as I should. I have mainly been using the site as a formal means of documenting my predictions to the public. Anyways, awards have been given out, and this year promises to be one of the craziest in years. Still, a consensus is forming, and I would like to show the top films competing for awards in each of the top 8 categories. I will present each film with my thoughts on the likelihood of a nomination. Then I will have the films that I see that stand a chance as well as a film that could come out of nowhere to garner a nomination on nomination day. So without further ado:
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Wall-E
Dark Horse: Happy-Go-Lucky
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus van Sant, Milk
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Dark Horse: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse: Christian Bale, The Dark Knight
BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Dark Horse: Kate Beckinsale, Nothing But the Truth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Dark Horse: Emile Hirsch, Milk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse: Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Visitor
Happy-Go-Lucky
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse: In Bruges
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Doubt
Dark Horse: Gomorrah
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
5 Most Anticipated Films
So the Oscar season is getting underway. It is now October and there have only been a few standout's--"Cloverfield," "Wall-E," and "The Dark Knight." Besides Heath Ledger's performance there have been few performances that will make it through the Oscar season. Anyways, I would like to list my top 5 most anticipated films for the rest of the year (I'm only including films that have released trailers.).
5. "Australia"- I loved the recent trailer that was released for this film. I think Nicole Kidman can get nominated again, but it is going to be tough because she is facing stiff competition. The first trailer for this film was very underwhelming, in my opinion so I am still a little skeptical. However, if it lives up to the new trailer, this could be something truly remarkable and epic.
4."Revolutionary Road"-The trailer for the film was good. It showed that this film has potential. I personally am rooting for it, but I wasn't sure how I felt about Kate Winslet in the preview. She seemed to be somewhat off. Still, it was a well-made trailer that has me intrigued. I want this film to do well, and I just hope it can deliver.
3. "Doubt"-I loved the music in this trailer, and the performances appear powerful. I think this will be one of those slow-paced, methodical dramas that really get you thinking.The feeling I got from the trailer reminded me a lot of the vibe I got after watching "A History of Violence." If it comes close to this, then "Doubt" could be one of the best films of the year.
2. "Rachel Getting Married"-The trailer for this film was amazing. I think the performances are going to be absolutely phenomenol, and I am glad that I went with my gut and included Anne Hathaway in my predictions in the beginning of the year. I think the film may be a little cliched, but it should be powerful nonetheless. This has all the potential of becoming my favorite indie of the year.
1."The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"- This film looks magical. I think it will be an enchanting experience that will leave audiences gasping for breath. If anyone can pull this film off it's definitely Fincher. My only concern is that I heard they have moved the time period up, and they actually show up to modern times during Hurricane Katrina. The trailer gave me this period piece feel, and I don't know how that is going to contrast with that. It could wind up being really good or disasterous. We'll find out in December.
Other noteworthies: "The City of Ember," "The Road," "Milk," "The Time Traveler's Wife", and "Twilight"
5. "Australia"- I loved the recent trailer that was released for this film. I think Nicole Kidman can get nominated again, but it is going to be tough because she is facing stiff competition. The first trailer for this film was very underwhelming, in my opinion so I am still a little skeptical. However, if it lives up to the new trailer, this could be something truly remarkable and epic.
4."Revolutionary Road"-The trailer for the film was good. It showed that this film has potential. I personally am rooting for it, but I wasn't sure how I felt about Kate Winslet in the preview. She seemed to be somewhat off. Still, it was a well-made trailer that has me intrigued. I want this film to do well, and I just hope it can deliver.
3. "Doubt"-I loved the music in this trailer, and the performances appear powerful. I think this will be one of those slow-paced, methodical dramas that really get you thinking.The feeling I got from the trailer reminded me a lot of the vibe I got after watching "A History of Violence." If it comes close to this, then "Doubt" could be one of the best films of the year.
2. "Rachel Getting Married"-The trailer for this film was amazing. I think the performances are going to be absolutely phenomenol, and I am glad that I went with my gut and included Anne Hathaway in my predictions in the beginning of the year. I think the film may be a little cliched, but it should be powerful nonetheless. This has all the potential of becoming my favorite indie of the year.
1."The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"- This film looks magical. I think it will be an enchanting experience that will leave audiences gasping for breath. If anyone can pull this film off it's definitely Fincher. My only concern is that I heard they have moved the time period up, and they actually show up to modern times during Hurricane Katrina. The trailer gave me this period piece feel, and I don't know how that is going to contrast with that. It could wind up being really good or disasterous. We'll find out in December.
Other noteworthies: "The City of Ember," "The Road," "Milk," "The Time Traveler's Wife", and "Twilight"
Monday, September 15, 2008
What I've Learned From Toronto
Predictions Update (September 15, 2008-After Toronto)
BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Dark Knight”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “The Road”
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Wrestler”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Darren Aronofsky, “The Wrestler”
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Sean Penn, “Milk”
4. Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
7. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “Che”
10. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Kristen Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy Go Lucky”
7. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
8. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
9. Ellen Burstyn, “Lovely, Still”
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Nothing but the Truth”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Christian McKay, “Me and Orson Welles’
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
9. Jamie Foxx, “The Soloist”
10. Peter O’Toole, “Dean Spanley”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
2. Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing but the Truth”
6. Viola Davis, “Doubt”
7. Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
8. Charlize Theron, “The Road”
9. Elizabeth Banks, “W”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “The Changeling”
2. “Happy-Go-Lucky”
3. “The Wrestler”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “Wall-E”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “I’ve Loved You So Long”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Soloist”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Slumdog Millionaire”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “Body of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Doubt”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Dark Knight”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “The Road”
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Wrestler”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Darren Aronofsky, “The Wrestler”
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Sean Penn, “Milk”
4. Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
7. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “Che”
10. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Kristen Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy Go Lucky”
7. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
8. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
9. Ellen Burstyn, “Lovely, Still”
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Nothing but the Truth”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Christian McKay, “Me and Orson Welles’
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
9. Jamie Foxx, “The Soloist”
10. Peter O’Toole, “Dean Spanley”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
2. Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing but the Truth”
6. Viola Davis, “Doubt”
7. Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
8. Charlize Theron, “The Road”
9. Elizabeth Banks, “W”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “The Changeling”
2. “Happy-Go-Lucky”
3. “The Wrestler”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “Wall-E”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “I’ve Loved You So Long”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Soloist”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Slumdog Millionaire”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “Body of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Doubt”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Predictions Update
I've been pretty inactive for awhile, and I'm sorry to say that. I don't think there is anyone really eagerly checking this blog everyday to see if I posted anything new though. Anyways, the Toronto Film Festival starts tomorrow, and I wanted to update my predictions before the festival starts. With awards season getting ready to start, I expect to update the blog more frequently. Expect another update after Toronto. Here's my updated predictions with some commentary:
Predictions Update (September 3, 2008-Before Toronto)
BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Road”
3. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “Slumdog Millionaire"
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Dark Knight”
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" looks like the strong bet right now, and after the extraordinary teaser, I'm going to stick with that as my pick. Still, if "The Road" catches on I can see that winning. "I think Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road" are character pieces so I don't think they will win. I also want to predict "Milk" but I just don't know much about it yet. The trailer is supposed to hit today, so we'll see. I also could see "The Dark Knight" getting nominated, but I want to wait before I move it into my top 5.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”
I really don't know what director is going to wind this category or even who is going to be nominated. Mendes won for "American Beatuy," so I'm not going ot say him. If I had to predict a winner I would say Fincher, even though I don't feel safe saying that right now. I feel more safe in predicting Nolan for "The Dark Knight." The film is just too big to ignore, even if it's not going to be the best film of the year.
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Sean Penn, “Milk”
4. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”/ “Guerilla”
10. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
I am also fairly confident about my predicted 5 in this category. I think Hoffman may go supporting for "Doubt" but I'm not sure. With "Doubt" and "Synecdoche, New York," he should have a great year. I just expect their to be some category confusion, and he will probably wind up missing out this year. Del Toro is said to be strong in "Che" but the film has received less than enthusiastic reviews. Distributing the film has also become a hassle. Still, I like my top 5, and I could see any of them winning. I think Penn is the least likely to win because he won for "Mystic River." If I had to pick a frontrunner I would say it's Langella for "Frost/Nixon," but I kind of see a dark horse coming out from the shadows in Viggo Mortensen in "The Road."
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Kristen Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
7. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
8. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
9. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
10. Michelle Williams, “Wendy and Lucy”
The Best Actress category is extremely packed this year. I think any 10 of these ladies has a possibility of being nominated. After seeing "Happy-Go-Lucky," I can understand the buzz surrounding her, but I really don't think it's going to last until nominations, and I hope it doesn't. If anyone's buzz should carry until nomination time I would it would be Melissa Leo's for her amazing portrayl of Ray in "Frozen River." The film is extremely powerful, and if I had it my way it would probably show up in other categories (so far). I removed Rachel McAdams from my top 5, only because there is some discrepancy about when the film is going to be released. Last time I heard, it was aiming for a Thanksgiving release. If the film is released then, I think her performance will be amazing. Early buzz on her is strong, and the book the film is based upon is one of the most interesting books I have read in awhile. Hathaway and Thomas are riding strong buzz right now, and I think both of them will secure a nomination. Streep will probably be nominated yet again also, and Angelina Jolie, who was snubbed last year, for "A Mighty Heart," may pop up for "The Changeling" though I am hearing mixed things. Still I have heard extraordinary things about Kate Winslett in "Revolutionary Road," and she is long overdue for the win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
3. Live Schreiber, “Defiance”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
9. Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
10. Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
This category is weak. Extremely weak. I had enough trouble finding 10 possible contenders. Nevertheless, the one to beat in this category is Heath Ledger. His performance in "The Dark Knight" was too astounding to be ignored. If I had to pick a nominee that poses any serious threat to him I was say it's Kodi Smit-McPhee for "The Road."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
2. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing but the Truth”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Charlize Theron, “The Road”
6. Viola Davis, “Doubt”
7. Rachel Weisz, “The Brother’s Bloom”
8. Rinko Kikuchi, “The Brothers Bloom”
9. Rachel McAdams, “The Lucky Ones”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
Supporting Actress is a fairly weak category this year. I loved Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I do not think she will win this category. Charlize Theron's role in "The Road" is supposedly bigger than it was in the novel, and if it is you can probably expect her to show up when the nominees are announced. "The Brother's Bloom" was pushed back to a limited release in December with a wide release following in January. I don't know if this gives the film enough time to build its campaign, so I removed Weisz from my top 5. Still, I think either she or Rinko Kikuchi have a good chance of being nominated if the film catches on. I really want to predict Rachel McAdams for "The Lucky Ones" (one of my favorite working actresses, so there may be a little bias there). I get really good vibes from the trailer, but I will wait until after the film premieres at Toronto to put her in my top 5. Honestly, I don't know who the one to beat is in this category. I would say it's one of my predicted 5 minus Cruz.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Synecdoche, New York”
2. “Happy-Go-Lucky”
3. “Wall-E”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “Seven Pounds”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Wrestler"
Many people are predicting "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I don't think the film can sustain it's buzz until the end of awards season. I have seen "Happy-Go-Lucky," and while it was a good film, I did not find it to be anything special. Still, I think it will probably end up nominated in this category. I have read "The Wrestler," and I really enjoyed it. I'm a little hesitant to predict it because it doesn't have domestic distribution yet. The one to beat in this category, in my opinion, is "Milk."
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Slumdog Millionaire”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “Body of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Doubt”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
"Slumdog Millionaire," Danny Boyle's new film has come out of nowhere and is running high on a wave of buzz from Telluride. If the buzz continues through Toronto, it could become this year's "Juno". I don't think it will be as successful as "Juno," but it should at least garner a nomination in this category. Still, I think the film to beat in this category is "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," despite the negative buzz surrounding the 20 minutes that were previewed at Telluride.
Predictions Update (September 3, 2008-Before Toronto)
BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Road”
3. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “Slumdog Millionaire"
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Dark Knight”
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" looks like the strong bet right now, and after the extraordinary teaser, I'm going to stick with that as my pick. Still, if "The Road" catches on I can see that winning. "I think Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road" are character pieces so I don't think they will win. I also want to predict "Milk" but I just don't know much about it yet. The trailer is supposed to hit today, so we'll see. I also could see "The Dark Knight" getting nominated, but I want to wait before I move it into my top 5.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”
I really don't know what director is going to wind this category or even who is going to be nominated. Mendes won for "American Beatuy," so I'm not going ot say him. If I had to predict a winner I would say Fincher, even though I don't feel safe saying that right now. I feel more safe in predicting Nolan for "The Dark Knight." The film is just too big to ignore, even if it's not going to be the best film of the year.
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Sean Penn, “Milk”
4. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”/ “Guerilla”
10. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
I am also fairly confident about my predicted 5 in this category. I think Hoffman may go supporting for "Doubt" but I'm not sure. With "Doubt" and "Synecdoche, New York," he should have a great year. I just expect their to be some category confusion, and he will probably wind up missing out this year. Del Toro is said to be strong in "Che" but the film has received less than enthusiastic reviews. Distributing the film has also become a hassle. Still, I like my top 5, and I could see any of them winning. I think Penn is the least likely to win because he won for "Mystic River." If I had to pick a frontrunner I would say it's Langella for "Frost/Nixon," but I kind of see a dark horse coming out from the shadows in Viggo Mortensen in "The Road."
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Kristen Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
7. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
8. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
9. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
10. Michelle Williams, “Wendy and Lucy”
The Best Actress category is extremely packed this year. I think any 10 of these ladies has a possibility of being nominated. After seeing "Happy-Go-Lucky," I can understand the buzz surrounding her, but I really don't think it's going to last until nominations, and I hope it doesn't. If anyone's buzz should carry until nomination time I would it would be Melissa Leo's for her amazing portrayl of Ray in "Frozen River." The film is extremely powerful, and if I had it my way it would probably show up in other categories (so far). I removed Rachel McAdams from my top 5, only because there is some discrepancy about when the film is going to be released. Last time I heard, it was aiming for a Thanksgiving release. If the film is released then, I think her performance will be amazing. Early buzz on her is strong, and the book the film is based upon is one of the most interesting books I have read in awhile. Hathaway and Thomas are riding strong buzz right now, and I think both of them will secure a nomination. Streep will probably be nominated yet again also, and Angelina Jolie, who was snubbed last year, for "A Mighty Heart," may pop up for "The Changeling" though I am hearing mixed things. Still I have heard extraordinary things about Kate Winslett in "Revolutionary Road," and she is long overdue for the win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
3. Live Schreiber, “Defiance”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
9. Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
10. Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
This category is weak. Extremely weak. I had enough trouble finding 10 possible contenders. Nevertheless, the one to beat in this category is Heath Ledger. His performance in "The Dark Knight" was too astounding to be ignored. If I had to pick a nominee that poses any serious threat to him I was say it's Kodi Smit-McPhee for "The Road."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
2. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing but the Truth”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Charlize Theron, “The Road”
6. Viola Davis, “Doubt”
7. Rachel Weisz, “The Brother’s Bloom”
8. Rinko Kikuchi, “The Brothers Bloom”
9. Rachel McAdams, “The Lucky Ones”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
Supporting Actress is a fairly weak category this year. I loved Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I do not think she will win this category. Charlize Theron's role in "The Road" is supposedly bigger than it was in the novel, and if it is you can probably expect her to show up when the nominees are announced. "The Brother's Bloom" was pushed back to a limited release in December with a wide release following in January. I don't know if this gives the film enough time to build its campaign, so I removed Weisz from my top 5. Still, I think either she or Rinko Kikuchi have a good chance of being nominated if the film catches on. I really want to predict Rachel McAdams for "The Lucky Ones" (one of my favorite working actresses, so there may be a little bias there). I get really good vibes from the trailer, but I will wait until after the film premieres at Toronto to put her in my top 5. Honestly, I don't know who the one to beat is in this category. I would say it's one of my predicted 5 minus Cruz.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Synecdoche, New York”
2. “Happy-Go-Lucky”
3. “Wall-E”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “Seven Pounds”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Wrestler"
Many people are predicting "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," but I don't think the film can sustain it's buzz until the end of awards season. I have seen "Happy-Go-Lucky," and while it was a good film, I did not find it to be anything special. Still, I think it will probably end up nominated in this category. I have read "The Wrestler," and I really enjoyed it. I'm a little hesitant to predict it because it doesn't have domestic distribution yet. The one to beat in this category, in my opinion, is "Milk."
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Slumdog Millionaire”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “Body of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Doubt”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
"Slumdog Millionaire," Danny Boyle's new film has come out of nowhere and is running high on a wave of buzz from Telluride. If the buzz continues through Toronto, it could become this year's "Juno". I don't think it will be as successful as "Juno," but it should at least garner a nomination in this category. Still, I think the film to beat in this category is "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," despite the negative buzz surrounding the 20 minutes that were previewed at Telluride.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Updated Oscar Predictions
BEST PICTURE
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Road”
3. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “Wall-E”
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Dark Knight”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Mike Leigh, “Happy Go Lucky”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
4. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Daniel Craig, “Defiance”
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”/ “Guerilla”
10. Sean Penn, “Milk”
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy Go Lucky”
7. Nicole Kidman, “Australia”
8. Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens”
9. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
3. Live Schreiber, “Defiance”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. John Malkovich, “The Changeling”
9. Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
10. Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Amy Adams, “Doubt”
2. Jessica Lange, “Grey Gardens”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Rachel Weisz, “The Brothers Bloom”
6. Amy Ryan, ‘The Changeling”
7. Catherine Keener, “The Soloist”
8. Rinko Kikuchi, “The Brothers Bloom”
9. Rachel McAdams, “The Lucky Ones”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Synecdoche, New York”
2. “The Changeling”
3. “Wall-E”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “Happy Go Lucky”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “Seven Pounds”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Soloist”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Doubt”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “House of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Grey Gardens”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
I tried to be a little bold when I updated my predictions. I have a strange feeling about "The Road." I included it in my top 5, but my feelings change about that daily. The one performance that I am adamant about is Rachel McAdams in "The Time Traveler's Wife." No one else has predicted this that I know of, but after reading the novel, this is the performance that I am most excited about for the rest of the year.
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Road”
3. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4. “Milk”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “The Changeling”
7. “Australia”
8. “Wall-E”
9. “Doubt”
10. “The Dark Knight”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Gus van Sant, “Milk”
4. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
6. Clint Eastwood, “The Changeling”
7. Mike Leigh, “Happy Go Lucky”
8. Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”
9. John Hilcoat, “The Road”
10. Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
4. Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
6. Daniel Craig, “Defiance”
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”
8. Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
9. Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”/ “Guerilla”
10. Sean Penn, “Milk”
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
2. Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
3. Rachel McAdams, “The Time Traveler’s Wife”
4. Angelina Jolie, “The Changeling”
5. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
6. Sally Hawkins, “Happy Go Lucky”
7. Nicole Kidman, “Australia”
8. Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens”
9. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
2. Robert Downey, Jr., “The Soloist”
3. Live Schreiber, “Defiance”
4. Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Road”
6. Josh Brolin, “Milk”
7. Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
8. John Malkovich, “The Changeling”
9. Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
10. Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1.Amy Adams, “Doubt”
2. Jessica Lange, “Grey Gardens”
3. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5. Rachel Weisz, “The Brothers Bloom”
6. Amy Ryan, ‘The Changeling”
7. Catherine Keener, “The Soloist”
8. Rinko Kikuchi, “The Brothers Bloom”
9. Rachel McAdams, “The Lucky Ones”
10. Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Synecdoche, New York”
2. “The Changeling”
3. “Wall-E”
4. “Milk”
5. “Rachel Getting Married”
6. “Happy Go Lucky”
7. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
8. “Seven Pounds”
9. “Australia”
10. “The Soloist”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Revolutionary Road”
2. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3. “The Road”
4. “Doubt”
5. “Frost/Nixon”
6. “House of Lies”
7. “The Reader”
8. “Grey Gardens”
9. “Defiance”
10. “The Dark Knight”
I tried to be a little bold when I updated my predictions. I have a strange feeling about "The Road." I included it in my top 5, but my feelings change about that daily. The one performance that I am adamant about is Rachel McAdams in "The Time Traveler's Wife." No one else has predicted this that I know of, but after reading the novel, this is the performance that I am most excited about for the rest of the year.
Monday, July 21, 2008
The Dark Knight (*** 1/2)
The Dark Knight is quite possibly the greatest superhero movie ever made, if it could be called that. It transcends the superhero genre that it is mistaken as, having more in common with recent crime dramas such as The Departed and Zodiac. I, however, would hesitate to call it the masterpiece that many people are rushing to label it as. While it is apparent that this film will probably be one of the greatest achievements of the year, I think it is a film that needs to be mulled over and thought after before being labeled as a masterpiece. I think it will take many repeat viewings and/or years for it to achieve this status, but all great films are like this.
The story picks up right where Batman Begins left off. Gotham City is being terrorized by the Joker, in my opinion, the most menacing villain to probably ever appear on screen. He is a character shrouded in mystery. His scars are mementos of a violent past, but what that past is the viewer cannot be certain. He is a villain that does not do what he does for money, but rather for sport. As one character says, he wants to see what happens when the world around him burns.
Heath Ledger plays the Joker brilliantly, completely embodying this menacing character. He portrays him with this manic devilry that is quite frightening but saddening at the same time. The Joker has been labeled as a freak. While he is a totally demented character that seems like he is causing all of this chaos mainly for fun, it seems like another motive of his is to find others like him. He feels secluded from the world because of his scars. He sets up the citizens of Gotham in extreme moral predicaments where the boundaries of good and evil will be tested. The social experiments, as one may call them, almost appear to be the Joker’s way of trying to establish that he is not alone in the world. He wants to find others as demented as he is.
Without a doubt, Heath Ledger deserves a Best Supporting Actor nomination (and perhaps a win). He should have won Best Actor for Brokeback Mountain. With this performance Heath Ledger was showing that he was just hitting his stride, and the sky was the limit for this amazing performer, but his untimely death probably robbed movie fans of many amazing performances to come.
It is up to Batman to stop the Joker’s reign of chaos on Gotham City, with the aid of Lieutenant Gordon and District Attorney Harvey Dent. Here is where the film’s central message comes about. What defines a hero? Where does a hero trying to do good cross the line into villainy?
In the film Bruce Wayne is struggling with his Batman persona. Batman is supposed to be a symbol of justice, an impenetrable force that can protect Gotham for crises. Wayne believes that eventually Batman will not be needed in Gotham anymore, and when this time comes he can leave the mask behind and live a normal life with his longtime friend/lover Rachel Dawes. This is not something easily done, however, because the viewer gets the sense that it is not Batman that is the persona, but Bruce Wayne. Mr. Wayne will never be able to leave Batman behind, and Rachel realizes this.
Still, how much good is Batman actually doing? Innocent lives are being lost everyday that Batman does not reveal himself to the Joker. When Mr. Wayne is finally ready to reveal himself, Harvey Dent takes the fall for him. Is this something a hero would let happen? In the many battles with the criminal of Gotham, when does the violence turn Batman into a cruel villain himself. These are the questions presented to Bruce Wayne, and these are hard questions to answer. I have thought about them after viewing the film myself and still can’t come up with definite answers. The Joker sees this kindred spirit in Batman. He sees a freak like him, someone that is not fully accepted by Gotham, and when he is not needed anymore, the citizens will just turn their backs on him.
The one definite hero of the film, however, is Harvey Dent. He is a beacon of light for Gotham City, not someone that has to hide in the shadows. It may not be good to be labeled the hero, though. As Harvey says, “"You either die a hero, or live long enough to become a villain." While Dent may be the hero that Gotham needs, below the surface is this menacing man who will do whatever it takes to achieve justice. When tragedy strikes Dent that hidden monster is unleashed. Dent may have been a hero, but not for long.
Going back over my review, I feel like I have barely scratched the surface of this film. It is a film that needs to be studied, each character analyzed in depth. Is a complex, multi-layered film that for the most part works (greatly). I think the film could have used some trimming off the hefty run time. Also, the film only reaches greatness when Heath Ledger is on screen. I wish I could have seen more of him. It probably could have worked better as two films, but Christopher Nolan does a fine job piecing it together as one. Overall, I really enjoyed the film. Now let me go mull over it some more.
The story picks up right where Batman Begins left off. Gotham City is being terrorized by the Joker, in my opinion, the most menacing villain to probably ever appear on screen. He is a character shrouded in mystery. His scars are mementos of a violent past, but what that past is the viewer cannot be certain. He is a villain that does not do what he does for money, but rather for sport. As one character says, he wants to see what happens when the world around him burns.
Heath Ledger plays the Joker brilliantly, completely embodying this menacing character. He portrays him with this manic devilry that is quite frightening but saddening at the same time. The Joker has been labeled as a freak. While he is a totally demented character that seems like he is causing all of this chaos mainly for fun, it seems like another motive of his is to find others like him. He feels secluded from the world because of his scars. He sets up the citizens of Gotham in extreme moral predicaments where the boundaries of good and evil will be tested. The social experiments, as one may call them, almost appear to be the Joker’s way of trying to establish that he is not alone in the world. He wants to find others as demented as he is.
Without a doubt, Heath Ledger deserves a Best Supporting Actor nomination (and perhaps a win). He should have won Best Actor for Brokeback Mountain. With this performance Heath Ledger was showing that he was just hitting his stride, and the sky was the limit for this amazing performer, but his untimely death probably robbed movie fans of many amazing performances to come.
It is up to Batman to stop the Joker’s reign of chaos on Gotham City, with the aid of Lieutenant Gordon and District Attorney Harvey Dent. Here is where the film’s central message comes about. What defines a hero? Where does a hero trying to do good cross the line into villainy?
In the film Bruce Wayne is struggling with his Batman persona. Batman is supposed to be a symbol of justice, an impenetrable force that can protect Gotham for crises. Wayne believes that eventually Batman will not be needed in Gotham anymore, and when this time comes he can leave the mask behind and live a normal life with his longtime friend/lover Rachel Dawes. This is not something easily done, however, because the viewer gets the sense that it is not Batman that is the persona, but Bruce Wayne. Mr. Wayne will never be able to leave Batman behind, and Rachel realizes this.
Still, how much good is Batman actually doing? Innocent lives are being lost everyday that Batman does not reveal himself to the Joker. When Mr. Wayne is finally ready to reveal himself, Harvey Dent takes the fall for him. Is this something a hero would let happen? In the many battles with the criminal of Gotham, when does the violence turn Batman into a cruel villain himself. These are the questions presented to Bruce Wayne, and these are hard questions to answer. I have thought about them after viewing the film myself and still can’t come up with definite answers. The Joker sees this kindred spirit in Batman. He sees a freak like him, someone that is not fully accepted by Gotham, and when he is not needed anymore, the citizens will just turn their backs on him.
The one definite hero of the film, however, is Harvey Dent. He is a beacon of light for Gotham City, not someone that has to hide in the shadows. It may not be good to be labeled the hero, though. As Harvey says, “"You either die a hero, or live long enough to become a villain." While Dent may be the hero that Gotham needs, below the surface is this menacing man who will do whatever it takes to achieve justice. When tragedy strikes Dent that hidden monster is unleashed. Dent may have been a hero, but not for long.
Going back over my review, I feel like I have barely scratched the surface of this film. It is a film that needs to be studied, each character analyzed in depth. Is a complex, multi-layered film that for the most part works (greatly). I think the film could have used some trimming off the hefty run time. Also, the film only reaches greatness when Heath Ledger is on screen. I wish I could have seen more of him. It probably could have worked better as two films, but Christopher Nolan does a fine job piecing it together as one. Overall, I really enjoyed the film. Now let me go mull over it some more.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Random Thoughts
I just glanced over my Oscar predictions. I read a review for "Blindness" on aintitcool.com that liked the film, but I don't think they gave it a lot of acclaim. Then again, those reviews can't really be trusted to be the most accurate indicators of the upcoming and long away Oscar season.
Two actresses that have been really catching my attention are Diane Lane and Rachel McAdams. I think Diane Lane has a shot for "Nights in Roadanthe." She is overdue, and the role seems good. The one actress that I really want to predict, however, is Rachel McAdams for "The Time Traveler's Wife." The role seems baity, and in my opinion she is overdue for a nomination also. She is definitely one to watch.
Two actresses that have been really catching my attention are Diane Lane and Rachel McAdams. I think Diane Lane has a shot for "Nights in Roadanthe." She is overdue, and the role seems good. The one actress that I really want to predict, however, is Rachel McAdams for "The Time Traveler's Wife." The role seems baity, and in my opinion she is overdue for a nomination also. She is definitely one to watch.
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